This blog post walks the reader through the process of calculating Actual Ending Values for LRP-Swine. The steps are described in LRP-Swine SCE. There were no substantive changes for RY2027 vs. the previous SCE (issued for RY2025), but some questions have been raised given that RY2027 SCE explicitly names the AMS report from which data is extracted.
We will calculate the AEV for June 3, 2026.
Actual ending value–swine – The weighted average price of lean hogs. The days used in the weighted average price calculations are the end date and one day prior to the end date.
To calculate AEV for June 3, 2026, we need to use the data for 6/3/2026 as well as 6/2/2026.
The actual ending value is to be used in calculations on a dollars per cwt basis. The AMS price series used will be the same series used to settle the lean hog futures contract at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
CME publishes the Lean Hog Index for several recent days at https://www.cmegroup.com/market-data/browse-data/commodity-index-prices.html At the time of writing this blog on June 5, the following data could be observed on the CME website:
CME Lean Hog Index value for June 3, 2026 was $92.51/cwt. That is the value that we need to replicate.
The weighted average price is calculated using two Producer Sold data series in the report National Daily Direct Hog Prior Day Report – Slaughtered Swine, the Negotiated and the Swine or Pork Market Formula (SPMF) categories. The AMS report is available on the Internet at https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/viewReport/2511.
The report National Daily Direct Hog Prior Day Report – Slaughtered Swine is published Monday through Friday, typically between 1:45 and 2:00 pm ET, and contains data for the prior business day.
Note that the mandatory livestock reporting program has several national price series for hogs. We do not use Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report. For Actual Ending Value for June 3, we use data from the following two issues of the National Daily Direct Hog Prior Day Report – Slaughtered Swine report:
Highlighted cells from the report are used in the calculation of LRP Actual Ending Values:
The steps to calculate the weighted average price are:
(1) Multiply the Negotiated Head Count by the Negotiated
Average Carcass Weight for each of the two days of the index to calculate the Negotiated Volume for each day.(2) Multiply the results from 1 by the Negotiated Average Net Price for each of the two days of the index to calculate the Negotiated Total Value for each day.
(3) Multiply the SPMF Head Count by the SPMF Average Carcass Weight for each of the two days of the index to calculate the SPMF Volume for each day.
(4) Multiply the results from 3 by the SPMF Average Net Price for each day of the two days in the index to calculate the SPMF Total Value for each day
| Negotiated | Negotiated | Swine or Pork Market Formula | Swine or Pork Market Formula | |
| June 2, 2026 | June 3, 2026 | June 2, 2026 | June 3, 2026 | |
| Head Count | 4,158 | 2,694 | 123,440 | 123,925 |
| Average Carcass Wt | 216.25 | 225.79 | 216.58 | 216.97 |
| Volume | 899,167.50 | 608,278.26 | 26,734,635.20 | 26,888,007.25 |
| Average Net Price ($/cwt) | 94.79 | 94.51 | 92.40 | 92.50 |
| Total Value ($) | 852,320.87 | 574,883.78 | 24,702,802.92 | 24,871,406.71 |
When multiplying volume (in lbs) by Average Net Price (in cents / lb or $/cwt), it is important to align the units. Total Value (in $) = Volume (lbs) / 100 * Average Net Price ($/cwt).
(5) Add the Negotiated Total Values to the SPMF Total Values (four numbers) to calculate the Two Day Total Value.
Two Day Total Value = $852,320.87 + $574,883.78 + $24,702,802.92 + $24,871,406.71 = $51,001,414.29
(6) Add the Negotiated Volumes and SPMF Volumes (a total of four numbers) to calculate the Two Day Total Volume.
Two Day Total Volume = 899,167.50 + 608,278.26 + 26,734,635.20 + 26,888,007.25 = 55,130,088.21 lbs.
(7) Divide the result of 5 by the result of 6.
Actual ending value ($/cwt) = $51,001,414.29 / (55,130,088.21/100) = $92.51. The result matches the value observed on the CME website.
AMS publishes the data for June 3 on June 4. CME publishes the Lean Hog Index for June 3 one day later, on June 5. We collect the data as soon as it is published. Per our data release protocols, we then hold that data for 7 calendar days, to allow time for any data corrections to be issued by AMS. We publish the data to RMA 7 calendar days after the CME release date. For example, AEVs for SCEs with end date of June 3, 2026 will be published on June 12, 2026.
You may find the AEVs for all prior end dates at the RMA website https://www.rma.usda.gov/tools-reports/livestock-reports-lrp-lgm
If you need historical data in easy-to-use format, please feel free to reach out at https://commoditymarkets.com/contact-us